[Updated September 19 based on the LNG Spreadsheet Tool 1.1, posted here]
This analysis examines the climate impacts of Title VI, “Liquefied Natural Gas Exports,” based in part on my 2023 study, Status of U.S. LNG Export Permits and Associated Greenhouse Gas Emissions. This analysis does not provide a comprehensive assessment of the Manchin bill. The titles that are not assessed here could both significantly decrease emissions (in the case of transmission permitting reform) and significantly increase emissions (in the case of oil, gas and coal leasing).
"We permanently end President Biden’s reckless ban on natural gas exports."
-Senators Joe Manchin and John Barrasso, July 22, 2024 press release
Top Findings
Results are based on LNGST, the LNG Spreadsheet Tool posted here. Note that "net" analysis for any LNG estimates are highly uncertain, while directly-attributable ("gross") lifecycle GHGs from LNG rely on fewer variables and are less prone to analytical bias.
If enacted, Title VI of the Manchin-Barrasso bill would speed approval of the export of 12.3 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas beyond projects already under construction. This is equivalent to 90% of all natural gas used in the residential sector throughout the US. Assuming the industry-wide 83% utilization rate from 2023, producing 10.3 Bcf/d of additional US LNG from 2030 through 2050 would:*
Create gross lifecycle emissions of 8.5-11.5 gigatons through 2050, equivalent to 114-153 coal-fired power plants annually. Comparing to a deep decarbonization scenario consistent with meeting the Paris climate goals, the net impacts (central estimate) would be an increase of 8.3 gigatons thru 2050, equivalent to 111 coal-fired power plants. Compared to the business as usual baselines that significantly overshoot Paris climate goals (increasing global temperatures by 3 degrees or more), the net impact would be an increase of 5.5 gigatons.
Increase cumulative US energy expenditures by $600 billion through 2050 as a result of higher U.S. natural gas prices.
Negate the climate benefits of building 72 GW of renewable electricity transmission lines.
Roll back the clock by forcing DOE to use Trump-era climate calculations in order to circumvent an accurate public interest determination based on US climate commitments.
*Results are based on GWP20. GWP100 results are also shown in the charts and spreadsheet.